Go4College.com's has averaged 94% accuracy since its founding in 2001.
- Class of 2007 - 96.7%
- Class of 2008 - 96.4%
- Class of 2009 - 98.3%
- Class of 2010 - 98.1%
- Class of 2011 - 83.6%
- Class of 2012 - 90.3%
- Class of 2013 - 88.8%
Our accuracy for the Class of 2011 was affected by the decision of some colleges to exclude the newly added SAT Writing section from their admissions decisions. In addition, at that time, many colleges were still trying to determine whether or not to consider the Writing section and how they would use it to make decisions, so their processes were in flux. As colleges made determinations about the Writing section, our models were updated to reflect their decisions. As a result, our accuracy returned to the 90%+ level in 2008. We believe that in future years we can maintain or improve upon this ~90% level of accuracy as we continue to refine our technology to model the ever-changing admissions standards at each college.
Go4College.com's accuracy is calculated annually using the following formula and methodology (note, only those customers who responded to our survey are counted in the calculation):
Accuracy = 100 % - (# of incorrect predictions/total predictions)
Step 1:
The total number of predictions (denominator) equals the number of orders within the date range multipled by the number of colleges per order. We contacted each client who used the service between June and the following May to ask whether Go4College.com's predictions were correct and to remind them about the money back guarantee. To maximize response rate, all respondants were entered into a drawing for iPods and cash equivalents. Only those who respond are counted towards the accuracy percentage.
Step 2:
The numerator equals the number of incorrect predictions less the number of wait-listed outcomes. The denominator equals the total number of predictions less the number of wait-listed outcomes.
Step 3:
Go4College.com provided a full (100%) refund to those customers who chances of admission were predicted incorrectly. See below for how incorrect predictions are defined. More than 75% of the refunds were for predictions in the 45%-55% range. The total number of refunds becomes the numerator. The graph below provides the distribution of predictions given in 2006.
Step 4:
The total number of refunds was divided by the total number of final predictions, then subtracted from 100% resulting in an accuracy percentage of more than 98%!
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Money Back Guarantee:
For purposes of the money back guarantee, our predictions are considered incorrect if the chance of admission we provided for a college was 51% or better and - based on the same data you provided to us- that college does not accept you. Likewise, if we predicted that your chance of admission at a college was less than 50% and - based on the same data you provided to us - you are accepted, then we will also refund your money for that college. As you can see, the guarantee favors our clients and our accuracy still exceeds 94%!